Wednesday, September 5, 2007

4hour MACD Strategy - Part 1

Welcome to the 4hour MACD summary, which I’ve put together, especially for the people that come new to the thread, because there are a lot of posts to read through. I believe it’s in the region of 4000, just quickly want to have a look… I haven’t looked yet, 4300 at this stage, so it’s a lot of work. But if you want to make a success or a career of it, that’s not very much. 280 something pages, I believe people are reading story books, more than those pages. But what I would like to do is, I would like to put you a summary, that I want you to work through. I’m gonna put it in chronological order, after those many posts and people getting involved and chatting… And I’m following it, I’ve sort get an idea of what was going on, in the people minds, the way they trade, the way they take the system. And I just want to give some more, I won’t say advice, but just some more light onto the subject, to make the system more understandable for people, so that they not feel that they are in the dark.

Right, first of all, disclaimer that I want to say, is that this is not investment advice, I am not giving investment advice, I am not going to do so. This is a strategy, which I give for your own studying and if you feel to use it, you use it on your own risk. The market itself, the Forex market, you got to obtain the thorough knowledge of the market itself: its movement, the news… There are a lot of sites out there, on the Internet, you can go to obtain this type of knowledge. The currencies that I’m using and the examples that I’m gonna use (the charts) are only for educational purposes, just to educate you, it’s not to give you any advice as to say you got to trade those currencies. I prefer the US dollar, the British pound, the Japanese yen. USD/JPY – a little bit, and than lately I looked at the USD/CHF – I started doing some backtesting there as well. And I like what I see, the movement is a little bit smoother, and, so that’s one of those three that I really like to watch.

What the system is not going to do? The system is not going to make you rich in 40 days. It’s not gonna make you trade like a pro after 10 minutes. That’s why this thing is already 4000 posts, and over 280 pages, it’s because there’s a lot of work, that you’ve got to put in. It’s not a mechanical system, it’s not a system where can MACD tell you to pull the trigger and you just pull the trigger. That’s why you can see up to now, there was no attempt of making an EA of this whole system, an adviser for any of those platforms, automatic adviser that does the deals for you. It’s not there. And the reason being because there is a lot of emotion involve, a lot of interpretation, and that’s what I’m gonna teach you later on, to know the motion of the market, the rhythm of the market. So it’s not going to turn 300$ in 30000$ in no time, it’s not gonna do that. In the beginning you gonna have some losses, than a few wins, and you might find yourself after a month that you are breakeven, but I would like to tell you, or say to you, if you after 50 paper trades have not made money yet, than there is something wrong with your money management. It’s not the system, that I can, if you worked through all those 280 pages, you will see, it’s all about management, it’s all about emotions. A lot of people, I see get into motion, what I mean by that is, they come and sit in front of the computer and they see there is some movement going on, don’t really know why or what, but it’s going up, so I’m gonna get in. And that’s when you get into that motion that you get slotted. Because that motion can go up and down. The 4 hour candle can run up 60 pips, it can run down 50 pips, and it can go up 60 again. That’s how the market works, so by that: getting into a candle, that’s busy running, unless you know why it’s running… It’s a different story. There are certain times where you enter the market, whether system shows you, it’s running up, you don’t know why yet, or you don’t know why, but you get in, but there are certain areas that give you that high probability trades. That’s where you want to enter the market.

What is this system really going to do? It’s gonna give you certain knowledge about the Forex market, especially in terms of price action and in terms of the motion of the market. People get involved without market and price action knowledge, and if you do so, you are looking for trouble. The MACD signal alone is not enough. You can not just act on the signal of the MACD itself and say right, it gives a signal, I’m pulling the trigger. You can not do that. You will see later, I’m gonna put a lesson about the anatomy of a trade. The order of the trade, the way you analyze it, the way you go about in your trade.

Right, the original document is still valid, I’ll come to that later on, but download all the attachments, if you go to the very first post on the system in the forum, you will see there are little stars, above the stars there is a paperclip, if you click there you can download all the attachments to the thread.

Introduction, part 2:

The original document and the Exercise, which you’ll find in post one, is still valid. It’s not that this summary, is by any means, canceling that out, it’s still valid. You’ve got to work through it, you’ve got to read it. All I want to say, that all these examples inside that document, I’m using there, was not given in the tend, that every trade has been taken, and that are perfect trades that you only trade that way. The only reason the document was given like that was to give you an idea of what was going on around the system. That’s why the system is difficult to follow, you have to read through the whole thread to get the grasp of it, the document alone can not, if I had to do that in wording, typing it down, I would have been sitting here for 2-3 month doing it. That’s why I was not prepared to did, it was prepared to sit every night, an hour or so, spend time with you people and develop the system as it goes. Have that interaction, because to me a piece of paper it dead, there is no emotion in. While someone is talking to you, you can hear his emotion. If he writes to you about specific questions, you can hear his mind. Where with a piece of paper you got to make your own perceptions of what a guy is really saying. So, that’s why I said the document only gives you a background of what the system is like, and then the rest of the thread actually develops that thing further.

You’ve got to practice the exercise, there is a pdf. document – Exercise, you’ve got to work through that, and really work through that! What I mean by that is go and sit down, write down, make yourself a summary, write it down. And then you take another piece of the graph, of any currency, especially the one you like, take a piece, analyze it, and decide for yourself in the similar fashion like that Exercise: how would you have traded that period, not just quickly with a mouth, oh yes, there is a MACD signal, and quickly that would have given me 20 pips… That is eyesight backtesting, but go and sit drown, draw trend lines, see whether MACD is giving a signal, do you analysis and write it down, and that’s the only way you are going to practice this thing is by doing that. When it comes to trading the Exercise part should have been finished already, you should work on money management, and you should work on emotions, when it comes to trading. When trading, when it’s on the floor, as they say, all the learning, all the practicing must have been done. This is a real thing now. What happens there, is decisions, money management and emotions.

Right, then the set-up of the platform I’m using MT4 (Metatrader 4), I’m in GMT + 2, currently with GMT shift + 1. Setting up of the Moving Averages – you’ve got to learn that, but the MACD indicator for the Metatrader is to be found on page 274, post 4101. It was on the previous posts as well, but I saw someone has posted it, so I just thought I would give it to you people, so you can download it. But what you can do, as I said on the previous introduction, you can go right in the beginning, you go back to trading systems, on the forum and then you find “the 4Hour MACD Strategy”, and when you get that, you will see that there are some stars on the right hand side, not really hundred percent on the right, let me just quickly have it open … Yes, it’s about sixty percent to the right of the page, you’ll see there is some rating, there are five stars and above stars there is a paper clip, and when you click on that, you’ll get all the attachments in the thread. Download those pdf. files and if you can download the mp3 (the zip file) - listen to them. Some of them might not make sense, because you won’t have the graph in front of you, but some of them are just normal info, and it’s very helpful. So, go and do that and make sure you understand all the signals. Don’t bother how it works, but that’s also in the document. I’m not going to spend very much time in the summary about the signals, I’m referring you now to the original document. Go there, study those signals, know them and what I’m going to do is later on is give the signals and give you the short code, like: the Trend Continuation – TC, Round Top is – RT, Round Bottom is – RB. Just to give you an idea, that when we talk about RB, you know it’s a Round Bottom. If I’m talking about R:R – is risk to reward ration, if I’m talking about RR ration – it means your risk/reward ratio. When you are prepared to risk 30 pips to make 30, it’s one to one ratio, that’s what I refer to if I say RR ratio.

Well, that concludes the introduction part 2. The next one will be the Tsunami, so see you there.

Source: (Phillip Nell “4 Hour Strategy (300 + Pips per Month))


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